March is not bringing clarity. Instead, specialty oil buyers are dealing with a messy overlap of tariff litigation, newly reimposed duties under a different legal theory, refund uncertainty, a spike in crude oil prices tied to new Middle East conflict, and freight costs that can still jump when carriers add emergency surcharges. Questions? Contact us.

As a specialty oil buyer for rubber, plastics, adhesives, industrial fluids, or other formulations, this is a month to challenge every “business as usual” assumption in your landed-cost model. 

Some tariff exposure that looked settled a few weeks ago is back in play. Some freight lanes that looked calmer are now picking up new fees. And some importers who expected refunds are learning that having a process in place does not mean it will happen quickly.

If that isn’t enough, the new conflict in the Middle East is triggering major increases in the price of crude oil and oil products.

Here is what changed, what still looks unstable, and what specialty oil buyers should review before the next booking.

Suzanne Kingsbury, Director of Quality

The Backdrop: Iran War and Rising Prices of Crude and Oil-Derived Products

Before tariffs and surcharges even enter the picture, buyers also need to account for the sharp rise in the underlying oil market. Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began on February 28th, crude prices have climbed more than 40% in many benchmarks, while some refined products have risen even faster. That does not mean every specialty oil price moves one-for-one with crude, but it does mean buyers should be cautious about assuming March cost pressure is only a tariff or freight story.

Tariff and Policy Changes to Watch in March

The biggest March story is not just whether tariffs exist. It’s which legal authority is being used, how long those duties may stay in place, and whether importers can actually recover money already paid.

1. The Supreme Court Struck Down Key IEEPA Tariffs, but the Story Didn’t End There

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) were unlawful because tariff authority belongs to Congress. 

That sounds simple, but for buyers, the practical result is not simple at all. The ruling opened the door to refund claims on prior IEEPA duties, while also creating a new layer of compliance and litigation risk around past entries.

2. New Tariffs Were Reimposed Under Section 122, and Fresh Lawsuits Followed Fast

After the Supreme Court ruling, the administration reimposed a 10 percent global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The measure is set for 150 days and could rise to 15 percent. 

By early March, 24 states had already filed suit, and separate private-sector challenges followed as importers argued the new action also exceeded presidential authority. For specialty oil buyers, the takeaway is straightforward: do not assume the legal fight is over just because the legal citation changed.

3. Refunds May Be Real, but Timing and Administration Are a Major Problem

One of the most important March developments for importers is that refunds may take time to sort out. 

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) told the Court of International Trade that it had collected about $166 billion under the invalidated IEEPA duties and that roughly 20.1 million entries were still unliquidated as of March 4. 

In other words, even if your company may be entitled to relief, cash-flow planning should not assume a fast or simple refund process.

4. Section 301 Exclusions Still Matter, Especially for Related Inputs

Not every March tariff headline is about the new court fight. Existing China Section 301 exclusions still matter, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has previously extended certain exclusions through November 10, 2026. 

For many specialty oil buyers, this may matter less for the oil itself than for packaging, components, additives, or other imported items tied to the total delivered cost. It is still an “HTS-exact” exercise, meaning the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and description must match precisely.

5. Venezuela Developments Are Still Worth Watching

The Venezuela story is now less theoretical than it was a month ago. In early February, the United States had authorized broader activity involving Venezuelan oil, including U.S. diluent supply and wider handling permissions. 

Then, in March, Venezuela resumed exports of diluted crude oil after a 15-month pause. These developments do not automatically change specialty oil supply, but they do matter because they can influence feedstock flows, refinery behavior, and wider market expectations.

Shipping and Surcharges: March Is a “Hidden Add-On” Month

Freight markets are not sending one clean signal right now. Benchmark container rates are still relatively soft compared with crisis peaks, but that does not mean your next shipment will be simple or cheap. 

In March, buyers need to watch for the gap between broad index movement and lane-specific add-on charges.

1. Headline Container Rates Are Still Manageable, but They Are Not Flat

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3 percent to $1,958 per 40-foot container in the March 5th assessment. That’s not a panic number, but it is a reminder that rates can move back up quickly when carriers see a reason to tighten or reprice. 

This is a good month to stop relying on “last month’s number” and re-check rates before every meaningful booking.

2. Emergency Surcharges Are Back on Some Routes

A more important March signal may be the return of emergency fuel surcharges on specific trades. 

The Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has imposed emergency fuel surcharges beginning March 16 on cargo moving from Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea to the Red Sea, East Africa, and the Indian subcontinent. 

Even if your specialty oil shipment is not moving on those exact lanes, these kinds of fees are a reminder that regional disruptions can show up later as broader network costs, repositioning issues, or surprise surcharges.

3. Middle East Disruption Is Still Rippling Through Freight Planning

Freightos highlighted a fresh disruption tied to the Iran conflict in its March 4th update, and Xeneta reported early signs that spot rates were already increasing on some affected lanes and even beyond the immediate conflict zone. 

For specialty oil buyers, this matters because freight markets do not need a global shutdown to produce local pain. Sometimes all it takes is enough disruption in one region to change carrier behavior, vessel allocation, or pricing logic somewhere else.

4. The Red Sea Return Still Looks Partial, Not Complete

The longer-term shipping question has not changed as much as some headlines suggest. Industry reporting continues to point toward a phased, uneven return to Red Sea and Suez routings rather than one clean switch back to normal. 

That means buyers should still expect mixed routing patterns, carrier-by-carrier decisions, and temporary pricing noise as networks adjust.

Buyer Checklist: How to Protect Your Margins in March

March is a good month to tighten execution, because the market can punish assumptions fast. A tariff line may be under challenge, but still collected. A refund may be possible, but not fast. A freight index may look calm, while your lane picks up a new surcharge anyway.

• Confirm whether any current duties affecting your imports are tied to Section 122, Section 301, or another authority, and do not treat them as interchangeable.
• Review old entries with your customs team to determine whether refund rights or protest opportunities may exist after the February 20 Supreme Court ruling.
• Do not build your cash-flow plan around quick tariff refunds. Assume a delay until your broker, counsel, or customs specialist gives you a more specific answer.
• Re-check Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes, origin records, and product descriptions for every specialty oil shipment and any related imported packaging or components.
• Ask your forwarder whether any emergency fuel surcharge, war-risk charge, or routing change could hit your specific lane in March or April.
• Update landed-cost models using both the benchmark rate environment and a “hidden add-ons” scenario that includes surcharges, re-routing, and insurance changes.
• Keep an eye on Venezuela-related developments if your market view depends on broader oil flow changes, but do not overstate the immediate effect on specialty oils.

Don’t Let Oil Tariffs and Shipping Volatility Put You on the Defensive: Renkert Oil Can Help

March’s challenge is not just tariffs or freight. It’s stacked volatility. 

Buyers are facing a higher crude backdrop, stronger refined-product pricing, legal uncertainty around duties, and freight markets that can still add emergency costs with very little warning.

At Renkert Oil, we help specialty oil buyers stay prepared by:

• Supplying specialty oils with a strong focus on consistency, documentation, and dependable support
• Staying close to tariff, compliance, and logistics developments that can affect your true delivered cost
• Helping customers think through sourcing, freight, and timing decisions before a market surprise turns into a margin problem

If you’re updating your Q2 cost assumptions or planning spring shipments, contact Renkert Oil today. 

We can help you pressure-test oil tariffs, review risk points in your supply plan, and build a smarter path forward in a market that is still changing week by week.

 

FAQs: Oil Tariffs and Shipping

1. What changed with oil tariffs in March 2026?
   March brought more uncertainty, not less. Buyers are now dealing with court rulings on earlier tariffs, new duties imposed under a different legal authority, refund delays, and freight costs that can still rise through surcharges.
2. What did the Supreme Court rule about IEEPA tariffs?
   On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful because tariff authority belongs to Congress.
3. Does that Supreme Court ruling mean tariff risk is over?
   No. After the ruling, the administration reimposed a 10 percent global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and new lawsuits followed quickly. Buyers should not assume the legal fight is over just because the legal basis changed.
4. Can importers expect quick refunds on previously paid tariffs?
   Not necessarily. Refunds may be possible in some cases, but the process may take time. Buyers should not build cash-flow plans around fast or simple refunds.
5. Why do Section 301 exclusions still matter for specialty oil buyers?
   They can still affect total delivered cost, especially for imported packaging, components, additives, or other related inputs. These exclusions are “HTS-exact,” so the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and description must match precisely.
6. Why should specialty oil buyers pay attention to Venezuela developments?
   Because changes involving Venezuelan oil can influence feedstock flows, refinery behavior, and broader market expectations, even if they do not immediately change specialty oil supply.
7. Are shipping rates improving in March 2026?
   Not in a simple or predictable way. Benchmark container rates are still manageable compared with past peaks, but they are not flat, and buyers should not assume last month’s rate still applies.
8. What are “hidden add-ons” in freight costs?
   These are extra costs that may not show up in a broad freight index, such as emergency fuel surcharges, war-risk charges, re-routing costs, insurance changes, or other lane-specific fees.
9. Why are emergency surcharges important even if my shipment is not on the affected lane?
   Because regional disruption can ripple through wider carrier networks. Even if your cargo is not moving on the exact route in question, surcharges and vessel reallocations elsewhere can still affect your costs or timing.
10. What should specialty oil buyers do right now to protect margins?
    Confirm which tariff authority applies to your imports, review older entries for possible refund or protest opportunities, re-check HTS codes and origin records, ask about route-specific surcharges, and update landed-cost models to include both base freight rates and possible add-on costs.