Oil tariffs may be creating less uncertainty than they did earlier this summer, but specialty oil buyers are still facing significant shipping and supply-chain risks. Questions? Contact us.
In this month’s update, we cover the biggest factors affecting cost and availability in the specialty oil supply chain:
- New U.S. tariffs are focusing more heavily on specific countries and products.
- U.S.-Canada trade tensions are rising again.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic has dropped sharply amid renewed attacks.
- Shell’s Pearl GTL supply remains constrained.
- Panama Canal restrictions are adding new pressure to shipping capacity and costs.
- Container freight and marine fuel costs remain elevated.
For buyers planning Q4 orders, the biggest near-term concern may be less about new oil tariffs and more about transportation risk, lead times and supply flexibility.
Suzanne Kingsbury, Director of Quality
Tariff Changes Are Shifting Toward Specific Countries and Products
The broad 10 percent tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act expired July 24. It was immediately followed by new Section 301 tariffs of 10 or 12.5 percent on goods from 60 economies, depending on country of origin.
Those Section 301 tariffs remain an important part of the import landscape, but it’s important to note that oil and gas are still among the exempted product categories. The U.S. Trade Representative also created exemptions for certain raw materials and products where tariffs could cause supply problems or broader economic disruption.
Why It Matters
This doesn’t mean every specialty oil shipment should automatically be considered exempt. Tariff treatment can depend on the specific HTS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) classification, country of origin and other entry details. Buyers should continue checking those factors when calculating landed costs.
U.S.-Canada Tariff Tensions Are Rising Again
One of the biggest tariff developments since our August update involves Canada.
The United States imposed 50 percent tariffs effective August 22 on $27.6 billion worth of selected Canadian goods under Section 338 of the Tariff Act. Canada responded by announcing matching counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 percent on $27.6 billion of U.S. products, effective September 8.
Canada’s measures focus on products including steel and aluminum, dairy products, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. Canada’s Department of Finance published the complete details here.
Why It Matters
This is not primarily an oil tariff issue.
However, it matters to specialty oil buyers because many manufacturers operate across tightly connected U.S. and Canadian supply chains. New duties on plastics, equipment and other inputs can affect the overall cost environment even when the oil itself is not subject to the new tariff.
It also adds uncertainty around the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). U.S. and Mexican officials are continuing their review negotiations in September, while trade relations with Canada have become more strained.
For buyers, country of origin remains an important part of sourcing decisions.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risk Has Increased Sharply
The bigger near-term concern for many oil buyers may be transportation rather than tariffs.
After several weeks of relative stabilization, violence around the Strait of Hormuz escalated again in early September. Reuters reported September 6 that commodity-vessel traffic through the strait had fallen to an average of just 10 ships per day over the previous 10 days, the lowest level since May.
Only two commodity vessels were observed passing through on September 5. Reuters also reported that no very large crude carriers had exited the strait since September 2 amid renewed attacks involving U.S., Iranian and other commercial vessels.
Why It Matters
That matters well beyond crude oil. A prolonged disruption can affect tanker availability, insurance, marine fuel prices and the movement of petroleum-derived products throughout global supply chains.
Brent crude had climbed to approximately $97 per barrel on September 7, reflecting the market’s renewed concern about Middle East supply.
Shell Pearl GTL Supply Remains Constrained
The situation also continues to matter for buyers of gas-to-liquids (GTL)-derived specialty products.
There has been no significant improvement reported in Shell’s outlook for the Pearl GTL facility in Qatar. Shell says Train One was not damaged and is ready to restart once geopolitical conditions allow products to be exported safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
Train Two, which was damaged earlier this year, is undergoing repairs that Shell expects to continue through the first quarter of 2027. Shell’s latest operating outlook continues to tie a return to production to safe shipping access.
Why It Matters
For customers that rely on GTL products, that makes inventory planning and discussions about suitable alternatives especially important. Since the PEARL facility is a one-of-a-kind supply point, this becomes extremely impactful.
Panama Canal Restrictions Are Tightening
Hormuz is not the only important chokepoint facing pressure.
Below-expected rainfall associated with El Niño has limited the all-important lake volume, on which the locks system relies, to be limited. This has forced the Panama Canal Authority to reduce available transit capacity. Beginning September 3, daily booking availability was reduced to nine slots through the Neopanamax Locks and 25 through the Panamax Locks.
Panamax availability is scheduled to fall to 23 slots beginning September 15. The Panama Canal Authority said vessels arriving without reservations could face longer waits.
Why It Matters
Carriers are already passing some of those additional costs along.
MSC, for example, announced a revised Panama Canal surcharge effective September 12 on shipments from Southeast Asia, China, Korea and Japan to the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. The surcharge will be $297 per 40-foot container.
Further reductions remain possible if rainfall does not improve.
Container Freight Rates Remain Elevated
Global container rates have stabilized somewhat, but they have not returned to the levels buyers saw earlier in the summer.
Drewry’s World Container Index held essentially steady at $4,465 per 40-foot container on September 3. That is about 3 percent higher than the $4,339 level reported in our August update.
Marine fuel is another potential source of upward pressure.
Reuters reported September 7 that fuel-oil inventories at major hubs including Singapore, Fujairah and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were roughly 30 percent below seasonal norms. Very-low-sulfur fuel oil prices in Singapore had risen 76 percent since the Iran conflict began.
Why It Matters
Even if headline container rates remain relatively stable, higher bunker costs, canal surcharges and geopolitical risk could keep total oil shipping costs elevated.
What Specialty Oil Buyers Should Watch Next
September’s supply picture shows why landed cost is about more than the price of the oil itself.
Buyers should continue watching tariff classifications and country of origin, but transportation risk has become the more immediate concern. Hormuz remains unpredictable. Panama Canal capacity is tightening. Freight rates remain elevated and marine fuel costs are rising.
Building additional lead time into orders and discussing supply alternatives before inventory becomes urgent can help reduce exposure to sudden disruptions.
At Renkert Oil, we work with customers to navigate changing supply conditions with:
- Inventory positioned at multiple U.S. terminals.
- Transportation options that include truck, rail and barge.
- Access to specialty oils from a range of North American and global sources.
We can also help evaluate product alternatives when a preferred supply becomes difficult to obtain.
FAQs: Oil Tariffs & Oil Shipping September 2026
- What are the biggest oil tariff developments in September 2026?
The broad 10 percent Section 122 tariff expired in July and was followed by more targeted Section 301 tariffs based on country of origin. Oil and gas were among the exempted categories, although tariff treatment can still depend on the specific product classification and origin.
- Are specialty oils subject to the new Section 301 tariffs?
Not necessarily. Oil and gas were included among exempted categories when the new tariffs took effect. Buyers should still confirm the Harmonized Tariff Schedule classification, country of origin and other entry details for individual products.
- How are U.S.-Canada tariffs affecting specialty oil buyers?
The latest tariffs are not primarily directed at specialty oils, but they can affect manufacturers that rely on integrated U.S.-Canadian supply chains. Duties on materials such as plastics, equipment and other industrial products can increase overall manufacturing costs.
- What is happening with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz?
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply amid renewed attacks and geopolitical tensions. Reduced vessel traffic can affect tanker availability, insurance costs, marine fuel prices and delivery schedules.
- Why is the Strait of Hormuz important to specialty oil buyers?
The strait is a major route for global petroleum and energy shipments. Disruptions there can affect the availability and transportation costs of crude oil, base stocks and petroleum-derived specialty products throughout global supply chains.
- What is the latest outlook for Shell’s Pearl GTL facility?
Shell has said that Pearl GTL Train One is ready to restart when safe export conditions allow. Train Two remains under repair, with work expected to continue into the first quarter of 2027.
- How are Panama Canal restrictions affecting oil shipping?
Reduced rainfall has led the Panama Canal Authority to limit available transit slots. Fewer slots can increase vessel wait times, encourage rerouting and result in additional carrier surcharges.
- Are container shipping rates still elevated?
Yes. Global container rates remain above levels seen earlier in the summer, while several major Transpacific routes have experienced additional increases. Carriers are also continuing to manage capacity through blank sailings.
- Why are marine fuel costs important for specialty oil shipping?
Marine fuel is a major operating expense for ocean carriers. Higher fuel costs can lead to bunker surcharges and other freight increases that raise the total landed cost of imported products.
- What can specialty oil buyers do to reduce supply-chain risk?
Buyers can place orders earlier, allow additional lead time, review country-of-origin and tariff classifications and discuss alternative products or supply options before inventory becomes urgent. Working with a supplier that maintains inventory at multiple U.S. terminals can also provide additional flexibility.