Oil tariffs may not be the only line item changing your costs in January 2026. Shipping routes, carrier fees, and “event” surcharges can swing your landed cost just as fast. Here’s what specialty oil buyers should watch right now, plus a simple checklist to protect margins. Questions? Contact us.

January is when “set it and forget it” cost assumptions usually fall apart. Even if your tariff rate hasn’t changed, early-year carrier pricing moves, shifting security conditions on key lanes, and policy-driven fees can quietly rework your landed cost on specialty oils. 

This update calls out the few changes that actually affect what you’ll pay and the questions worth asking your broker, forwarder, and supplier before your next booking.

Tariff and Policy Changes to Watch in January

Policy news has been busy, but most of the practical impacts for oil buyers show up in the fine print: what’s exempt, what’s paused, and what still applies by origin and HTS line.

1. Section 301 Exclusions: Still Extended, But You Still Have to Match the HTS

There hasn’t been a new “rate cut” headline for oils. The key is still whether your product (or related items you import, such as steel drums) fits an exclusion and whether your paperwork supports it.

In early January, trade trackers continued to point to the same reality: the existing Section 301 exclusion extension remains in place, but it only helps if your entries are classified correctly and tied to the covered HTS lines.

2. China-Linked Port Fee Actions: Pause Still Matters for Freight Quotes

One thing that can show up in your shipping costs (even when your oil tariffs don’t change) is port-entry fees and related “China-linked” maritime measures.

Recent legal and trade guidance has emphasized that these Section 301 maritime-related fees/actions are paused for a year (starting November 10, 2025), which can reduce some tariff-adjacent cost pressure in certain lanes and carrier setups. 

But it’s not “free shipping,” and carriers may price in risk if they think policies could snap back.

3. Canada and Mexico: The Big Issue Is Predictability, Not Just the Headline Rate

For many specialty oil buyers, North America remains the most stable path when your goods qualify under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Regardless of the legal challenge to the Trump Administration’s import tariffs, USMCA-compliant goods still generally stay at 0%, while non-USMCA compliant goods can face higher tariff layers (with separate treatment for certain categories like energy).

But USMCA review pressure is building. Congress will be conducting the first joint review of the agreement since its adoption in 2020 on July 1st of this year, which keeps uncertainty elevated for 2026 planning.

Legal Watch: When Will the U.S. Supreme Court Decide?

Several opportunities for the Supreme Court to rule on the Trump Administration’s import tariffs have come and gone. As of mid-January, we still don’t know how this will affect the marketplace. We’ll continue to watch and advise our customers accordingly whenever a decision comes down.

Shipping and Surcharges: January Volatility Is Back in the Mix

Even if your oil tariffs stay flat, January freight can move your delivered cost quickly. Early 2026 pricing is already reacting to routing shifts, carrier pricing moves, and seasonal demand.

1. A Return to Red Sea and Suez Routes

There’s real movement here, but it’s cautious.

In mid-December, Maersk completed a Red Sea passage for the first time in nearly two years and has announced a gradual return to Suez routing, with the first sailing on January 26th.

For specialty oil buyers, that means you should expect mixed routing for a while: some shipments may shorten, others may still go the long way around Africa, depending on carrier decisions and timing.

2. Container Rates: Early January Saw a Rebound

If December felt like rates were “softening,” January has already shown how fast the market can turn. 

Early January rates jumped, then softened again, proof that the market is still swinging fast. If you’re budgeting landed cost, plan for week-to-week volatility, especially ahead of Lunar New Year demand shifts.

• Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) posted a sharp early-January jump tied to carrier rate hikes on major trade lanes, then fell 4% by the 15th amid weak demand.
• Freightos also reported early-January increases across several lanes in its weekly update, pointing to renewed upward pressure.
• Xeneta’s January 8 market update likewise reported significant spot-rate movement versus late December.

Sudden freight increases like this can raise your landed cost on specialty oils fast. Work with your suppliers to adjust timing, routing, or inventory plans before the next shipment hits your invoice.

3. War-Risk and “Event Costs” Still Spike Without Warning

Even if your cargo never goes near the Black Sea, instability in energy-linked routes can spill into insurance behavior, vessel availability, and surcharges.

For example, an oil tanker believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” was attacked by a Ukrainian drone on January 8th. Regardless of the politics, a pattern of vessel attacks like this not only triggers heightened security concerns in that region but also translates into higher premiums, deductibles, etc., everywhere. 

Also, don’t ignore carrier surcharge behavior. Carriers continue to use peak season surcharges (PSS) and similar add-ons, and those “valid until further notice” notices can hit your all-in rate at the worst time.

Buyer Checklist: How to Protect Your Margins in January

January is when buyers get burned by “we’ll figure it out later.” A short checklist now can save you real money on oil tariffs and freight surprises in Q1.

• Confirm HTS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) codes and origin documentation. Make sure every specialty oil you buy is classified correctly, and that origin is documented cleanly for customs and for USMCA (United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement) treatment when relevant.

• Ask your broker: do any Section 301 (China) exclusions apply to our entries? If the answer is “maybe,” that’s a red flag. Push for HTS-level confirmation and audit your paperwork.

• Ask your forwarder/carrier how the port-fee pause is being reflected in quotes. If it’s “baked in,” ask how. If it’s “not applicable,” ask why (vessel type, carrier policy, lane, contract structure).

• Model landed cost with two routing assumptions. Price one scenario assuming a longer Cape of Good Hope routing and another assuming a partial Suez return, because carriers are not moving in lockstep.

• Plan for January rate spikes. Don’t anchor on December pricing. Use current index movement as a warning sign and lock key loads earlier where you can.

• Track war-risk and disruption headlines as a cost signal. You’re not trying to become a geopolitics expert. You’re watching for the moments when insurers and carriers reprice risk overnight.

How Renkert Oil Helps You Stay Ahead of Oil Tariffs and Shipping Cost Fluctuations

In 2026, “best price” isn’t just an invoiced per-gallon line item number. It’s the best landed-cost plan you can count on, even when oil tariffs, port-related actions, and routing change mid-quarter.

At Renkert Oil, we help specialty oil buyers by:

• Sourcing and supporting specialty oils (including Group II/III base oils, GTL isoparaffins, and food-grade white mineral oils), with a clear view of how HTS classification and origin affect your real costs.

• Staying close to tariff and trade developments so you’re not surprised by policy-driven cost layers that hit after you sign a contract.

• Coordinating with logistics partners so routing, surcharges, and timing are part of the plan, not an afterthought.

If you’re planning Q1 shipments or locking 2026 volumes now, contact your Renkert Oil representative. We’ll help you pressure-test your oil tariffs exposure, validate the assumptions in your landed-cost model, and build a supply plan that holds up when the market gets noisy.

Let’s talk. Contact Renkert Oil today!

 

FAQs: Oil Tariffs And Shipping (January 2026 Update)

 

1) What are oil tariffs?
Oil tariffs are import duties applied to certain petroleum and specialty oil products based on the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin.

2) Why can my landed cost change even if oil tariffs don’t?
Because freight rates, route changes, port fees, insurance, and “event” surcharges can shift quickly and change your delivered cost without changing the tariff line.

3) What is the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS)?
The Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) is the code system used to classify imported goods. Your HTS code helps determine duty rates and whether exclusions or special treatment apply.

4) What are Section 301 tariffs, and how do exclusions work?
Section 301 tariffs are additional duties on certain China-origin imports. Exclusions only help if your exact HTS line and entry documentation match the covered list.

5) Do Section 301 actions matter if I don’t buy specialty oils from China?
Sometimes. Related items like steel drums, packaging, or equipment may still be affected, which can influence your total landed cost.

6) What does “China-linked port fee actions are paused” mean?
It means certain maritime-related fees tied to Section 301 actions are on hold for now. Depending on your lane and carrier, that pause may reduce some tariff-adjacent shipping costs.

7) What is USMCA, and why does it matter?
USMCA is the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on trade. It can keep qualifying goods at 0% duty. If a shipment doesn’t qualify, higher tariff layers may apply.

8) What does “USMCA-compliant” mean?
It means the product meets the agreement’s rules of origin and documentation requirements, which supports preferential (often zero-duty) treatment.

9) Why do shipping routes (like Suez vs. the Cape of Good Hope) matter?
Different routes change transit time, fuel costs, equipment availability, and the surcharge stack, which can move your delivered cost even when oil tariffs stay flat.

10) Why do container rates matter to specialty oil buyers?
Container rate swings can quickly raise your delivered cost for containerized specialty oils and related logistics, especially when carriers reprice with short notice.

11) What is war-risk insurance, and why can it affect me outside the Black Sea?
War-risk insurance is coverage priced around security threats to vessels. When risks rise anywhere, insurers and carriers may raise premiums or add surcharges more broadly, which can show up in your all-in freight quote.

12) How can Renkert Oil help with oil tariffs and shipping volatility?
Renkert Oil helps buyers pressure-test HTS and origin assumptions, stay current on tariff and shipping changes, and coordinate supply and logistics planning so landed cost is more predictable.